Microtrends

the small forces behind tomorrows big changes

Mark J. Penn

 “A microtrend is an intense identity group that is on the rise with needs and wants unmet by the current crop of companies, marketers, and policymakers, and others who would influence society's behaviour. “

 Mark Penn discovered/uncovered “Soccer Mom's” in Bill Clinton's campaign, and For the marketer, this is about hundreds of niche markets that are out there and ready to be tapped with new products, or new marketing angles. People are becoming increasingly individualistic, and more knowledgeable about their choices, at least with the thinks they know or are interested in. As a pollster, Penn is very empirical, and all of his trends are based on information collected through polls and other means.

These trends or interests, which are often applicable to 1% of the population or less, are under the radar forces shaping the world, and are in contrast to the “macro-trends” others tend to focus on.

Keys drivers of Microtrends are the increasing number of household heads, including individual households, the explosion of choice offered by producers, the way products can be personalized, and of course, the internet which allows people to connect.

Of interest, Penn argues the world's “super-elites”, while highly educated and very successful, are too busy, too tired, or too lazy to consult the facts and too removed from everyday problems to understand them.

For every trend there is a counter-trend, and for every push to modernize, there is a group that wants to hold on to old values.

Micro-targeting will become a key means of marketing, replacing the one-way TV & radio mass media of the past.

Trends of Interest

• Extreme Commuters: Those who will commute an hour or more daily in order to have a bit of space in the suburbs – a hard and a detached home.

• New Info Shoppers: Many more people than marketers think are really focusing on researching products they are interested in. Companies like Dyson that supply really good information can do well. People increasingly check online information before they buy.

• Long Attention Spanners: People interested in longer books, longer movies, and longer political speeches, and frustrated with sound bites and short pitches.

• Swing is King: Elections are still overwhelmingly decided by Swing voters, not the ideologues or those committed to a party. Voters are less rigid than ever.

• Impressionable Elites: Societies elites – the Phds and business leaders are more interested in candidate personalities & character, as opposed to policies.

• Second Home Buyers: Not so much by the rich, but increasingly for the middle class. 40% of homes bought in the US in 2005 were second homes. (at least before the crash...)